The Google Share Price Challenge 2006

Analysts are predicting that Google's shares could surge to $2,000. 

So, we thought we'd set a little challenge. 

The Google Share Price Challenge

The rules are simple. All you need to do is look into your crystal ball and predict Google's end-of-year share price, in dollars and cents. 

When you are happy with your share price prediction, simply reply to this thread. 

We will calculate results at the close of play on the last trading day of the year.

To sum up: 
         1.  Pick a number. 
         2.  Closest one wins.
         3.  Entries must be submitted 31 March 2006 to qualify.

Current Price

As at 9 January GOOG = $466.90

My prediction

I'm going for $683.37. Which is a bit higher than Piper Jaffrey's top forecast.


c.

Chris Lake
Editor, E-consultancy
chris@e-consultancy.com

Chris,

Link below makes interesting reading

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060118/yahoo_google.html?.v=3

Looks like Yahoo's EPS not as good as predicted - 12.3% shaved off their share price, and 4.8% drop in Google's at the same time (around $444). I don't think Google will have it all it's way this year, in fact, my less than bullish prediction is $375.00 year end:

Not only am I sure Microsoft have something up their sleeve (you don't think Bill Gates was just going to lie down and let Larry and Sergey have it all their own way do you?!), but I think the following (to name a few) will mean Google will start to reach the 'mature' part of its life cycle, and the share price could drop 
- The fact Google shares have already more than doubled in price in 2005
- A greater consistency in the market share of the main players will mean alternative ways will have to be found to generate ad spend, outside of the Google core bread and butter
- Increased mainstream popularity of emerging search technologies such as blinkx (www.blinkx.com) combined with the churn of Google 'early adopters' to something even newer
  - As the web grows even bigger, the increased use of vertical search engines with specific algorithms to provide less but more relevant results in particular areas / categories
- Commercialisation of RSS - customers not using Google every time they go to the web
- The rationalisation of online advertising spend by many companies using the ever more sophisticated analysis available, with the realisation that, in some cases, the return on customer (ROC) recruited from search engine advertising does not justify the ever increasing cost-per-click
- The increased use of affiliates for even more relevant advertising through behavioural targeting
- The increased pounds/shilling focus of retailers on customer 'lock-in' tactics and building of brand loyalty (retention investment further increases, overall marketing budget does not)
- The increased pounds/shilling focus of retailers in the provision of not only better service, but also multi-channel customer experience (the search becomes internal across all retailer channels) 
- The 'build or buy' Google mentality meaning the very successful primary objective to focus on 'what we're good at' is replaced by over-diversification